Turkey's mildly Islamist Government has been prevented from more fully embracing an Islamist agenda by two forces. The first is the powerful and staunchly secular Turkish army, the second is the prospect of EU membership, both of these are fading.
Last week the top military brass resigned in protest over the arrests of officer charged with alleged plot making. In effect handing over power over the military to the civilian government by giving them their pick of replacement. This is hugely important since the army has seen itself as defenders of Ataturks vision of a secular Turkey and has in modern history toppled no less then four governments by the means of military coups. With them neutralized the most serious bulwark against the islamization of Turkey has been overcome.
The lure of EU membership and the massive economic gains that would entail for Turkey has helped democratize the country and preserving the countries secular attitudes have been part of this. The EU does not want any of its members practicing sharia law or any similarly undemocratic behavior. But the likelihood of EU membership is diminishing as Europeans view immigration (especially Muslim immigration) in a increasingly negative light. The French President and the German Chancellor influenced by these sentiments have made it clear that their countries oppose a Turkish membership. If Turkey's EU ambitions really are hopeless then these is no more need for them to cater to foreign audiences, the Turkish government can instead focus on domestic opinion which has a much more positive view on Islamist policies.
It is now up to the Turkish people in a truly democratic fashion to prevent the islamization of their country through the ballot box, unfortunately they are much less trustworthy in their commitment to secularism.
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